Melbourne Heart vs Perth Glory analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.8%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.3%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
20%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne Heart
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
GOL
1 - 1
MEL
43%
28%
29%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2012 |
MEL
1 - 3
ADE
50%
27%
24%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | -1 |
| 29 Dec. 2011 |
SYD
0 - 4
MEL
50%
26%
24%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Dec. 2011 |
MEL
3 - 2
MEL
42%
28%
31%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | +1 |
| 17 Dec. 2011 |
PER
1 - 2
MEL
42%
28%
30%
|
72 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Perth Glory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
WPH
0 - 1
PER
61%
21%
18%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2012 |
PER
3 - 3
BRI
30%
27%
43%
|
66 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2011 |
NEW
1 - 1
PER
47%
25%
28%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2011 |
PER
1 - 3
CCM
29%
27%
45%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2011 |
PER
1 - 2
MEL
42%
28%
30%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | -1 |