Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.7%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.1%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
26.3%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.9%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
3º
12º
5º
21
1º
8º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
12% | 12.5% |
|
Next round
|
67% | 72.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
21% | 15% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
MCI
1 - 0
WPH
49%
25%
27%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2024 |
MFC
2 - 0
MCI
35%
25%
40%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
SYD
1 - 1
MCI
41%
25%
34%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
MCI
0 - 0
MEL
50%
24%
26%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
BRI
5 - 1
MCI
24%
25%
51%
|
72 | 63 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Western Sydney Wanderers
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 2024 |
WES
1 - 3
WUF
55%
23%
22%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
WES
1 - 4
SYD
41%
26%
33%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
ADE
1 - 2
WES
41%
25%
34%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
CCM
1 - 0
WES
59%
21%
20%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
WES
3 - 3
NEW
57%
23%
20%
|
68 | 61 | 7 | 0 |