Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.5%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.8%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.6%
26.8%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.3%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
+9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
3º
12º
5º
24
1º
6º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
12% | 15.5% |
|
Next round
|
67% | 69.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
21% | 15% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 2024 |
MFC
2 - 0
MCI
35%
25%
40%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
SYD
1 - 1
MCI
41%
25%
34%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
MCI
0 - 0
MEL
50%
24%
26%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
BRI
5 - 1
MCI
24%
25%
51%
|
72 | 62 | 10 | -1 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
PER
4 - 2
MCI
22%
24%
54%
|
73 | 59 | 14 | -1 |
Matches
Wellington Phoenix
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
WPH
3 - 2
ADE
49%
24%
28%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
PER
0 - 0
WPH
34%
25%
41%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
MFC
1 - 2
WPH
46%
25%
30%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
WPH
2 - 0
WUF
58%
22%
20%
|
67 | 60 | 7 | +1 |
| 06 Feb. 2024 |
WPH
0 - 0
CCM
31%
25%
44%
|
67 | 74 | 7 | 0 |