Marz vs Horitschon analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
10.4%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
2.5%
1-0
2%
2-1
3%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
0.1%
+1
6.9%
14%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
5.9%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
14%
75.7%
Win probability
2.89
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
4.2%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
19.7%
0-2
8.4%
1-3
8.2%
2-4
3%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
20.3%
0-3
8.1%
1-4
6%
2-5
1.8%
3-6
0.3%
4-7
0%
-3
16.1%
0-4
5.8%
1-5
3.4%
2-6
0.8%
3-7
0.1%
4-8
0%
-4
10.3%
0-5
3.4%
1-6
1.7%
2-7
0.4%
3-8
0%
-5
5.4%
0-6
1.6%
1-7
0.7%
2-8
0.1%
3-9
0%
-6
2.5%
0-7
0.7%
1-8
0.2%
2-9
0%
-7
1%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0.1%
2-10
0%
-8
0.3%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-40%
+73%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
17
11º
15º
15º
52
4º
16º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 78 |
1º
|
96.5% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 65 |
2º
|
67% | |
|
2º
|
56 | 59 |
3º
|
68.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
52 | 55 |
4º
|
69.5% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 50 |
5º
|
58.5% | |
|
5º
|
48 | 49 |
6º
|
69% | |
|
7º
|
40 | 41 |
7º
|
70% | |
|
6º
|
40 | 40 |
8º
|
71% | |
|
8º
|
36 | 37 |
9º
|
85% | |
|
10º
|
32 | 33 |
10º
|
23.5% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 33 |
11º
|
38% | |
|
11º
|
32 | 33 |
12º
|
28% | |
|
12º
|
30 | 30 |
13º
|
80.5% | |
|
13º
|
27 | 27 |
14º
|
95% | |
|
|
14º
|
17 | 17 |
15º
|
68.5% | |
|
15º
|
17 | 17 |
16º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Marz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May. 2024 |
PAR
6 - 0
MAR
86%
9%
5%
|
14 | 37 | 23 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2024 |
MAR
1 - 5
LEI
15%
17%
67%
|
15 | 26 | 11 | -1 |
| 10 May. 2024 |
MAR
1 - 3
ASV
8%
13%
79%
|
16 | 47 | 31 | -1 |
| 03 May. 2024 |
DEU
2 - 2
MAR
69%
17%
15%
|
16 | 21 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2024 |
MAR
3 - 4
HAL
35%
23%
42%
|
17 | 19 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Horitschon
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
PIN
1 - 3
HOR
32%
21%
47%
|
27 | 24 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 6
HOR
24%
20%
56%
|
27 | 20 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
HOR
3 - 1
KLI
52%
22%
27%
|
25 | 26 | 1 | +2 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
HOR
1 - 0
PAR
14%
17%
69%
|
23 | 38 | 15 | +2 |
| 03 May. 2024 |
LEI
1 - 2
HOR
62%
19%
20%
|
22 | 27 | 5 | +1 |