Marinhense vs Benfica Castelo Branco analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.6%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
9%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.6%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
27.6%
Draw
0-0
9.9%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
27.6%
26.8%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
9.6%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.1%
-1
17.2%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+23%
-33%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
1º
10º
4º
40
1º
7º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Marinhense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2023 |
MAR
3 - 1
SAB
69%
18%
13%
|
40 | 27 | 13 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
MAR
2 - 0
1DE
37%
27%
36%
|
38 | 40 | 2 | +2 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
MOR
2 - 2
MAR
37%
29%
34%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | -1 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
MAR
1 - 0
UDA
46%
26%
28%
|
38 | 36 | 2 | +1 |
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
SER
0 - 2
MAR
54%
27%
19%
|
37 | 43 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2023 |
BEN
1 - 2
1DE
46%
26%
28%
|
40 | 38 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2023 |
MOR
2 - 2
BEN
35%
28%
36%
|
40 | 35 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
BEN
4 - 3
UDA
53%
24%
22%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | +1 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
SER
1 - 1
BEN
45%
29%
26%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
BEN
1 - 1
ALC
79%
14%
6%
|
39 | 20 | 19 | 0 |