Marília vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.1%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.1%
2-0
10.9%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.8%
15.1%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
-36%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Marília
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar. 2011 |
UNI
3 - 2
MAR
36%
24%
40%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2011 |
MAR
1 - 1
CAT
60%
21%
20%
|
59 | 55 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2011 |
FER
1 - 1
MAR
31%
23%
45%
|
59 | 54 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2011 |
MAR
5 - 2
SER
68%
19%
14%
|
59 | 48 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2011 |
AME
3 - 2
MAR
28%
24%
48%
|
59 | 51 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 2011 |
COM
0 - 0
FER
37%
25%
39%
|
50 | 54 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2011 |
RIO
1 - 1
COM
48%
26%
27%
|
50 | 53 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2011 |
COM
1 - 0
CAT
35%
25%
40%
|
49 | 56 | 7 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 2011 |
COM
1 - 0
MON
35%
25%
40%
|
48 | 55 | 7 | +1 |
| 20 Feb. 2011 |
RIO
3 - 1
COM
52%
25%
23%
|
49 | 53 | 4 | -1 |