UEFA Intertoto Cup Final
Global 3-2
Maribor vs Villarreal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.6%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.4%
2-0
4%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.7%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
5.3%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16.1%
28.6%
Draw
0-0
12%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
28.6%
47.8%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
15.6%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
25.5%
0-2
10.1%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
14.2%
0-3
4.4%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
5.7%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Maribor
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2006 |
VIL
1 - 2
MAR
69%
20%
11%
|
75 | 90 | 15 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2006 |
MAR
2 - 0
ZET
49%
24%
27%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2006 |
ZET
1 - 2
MAR
44%
25%
32%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | +1 |
| 24 Jun. 2006 |
MAR
5 - 0
SJU
45%
24%
31%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | +1 |
| 18 Jun. 2006 |
SJU
0 - 3
MAR
52%
22%
26%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Villarreal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2006 |
VIL
1 - 2
MAR
69%
20%
11%
|
90 | 75 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2006 |
VIL
2 - 0
RAC
60%
23%
17%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | +1 |
| 07 May. 2006 |
RMA
3 - 3
VIL
68%
19%
13%
|
89 | 93 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2006 |
VIL
2 - 1
MAL
59%
23%
18%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2006 |
GET
1 - 1
VIL
36%
28%
36%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |