Marcílio Dias vs Guarani de Palhoça analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.3%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.3%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
20.4%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+39%
-16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Marcílio Dias
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 2015 |
CRI
1 - 0
MAR
72%
18%
10%
|
52 | 67 | 15 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2015 |
MAR
0 - 2
CHA
19%
24%
57%
|
53 | 75 | 22 | -1 |
| 22 Feb. 2015 |
MAR
3 - 4
AVA
23%
24%
53%
|
53 | 63 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2015 |
INT
2 - 1
MAR
35%
24%
41%
|
54 | 50 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 Feb. 2015 |
MAR
1 - 0
HER
42%
26%
33%
|
53 | 55 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Guarani de Palhoça
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 2015 |
GUA
2 - 0
INT
31%
24%
45%
|
46 | 53 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2015 |
GUA
2 - 2
AVA
14%
20%
66%
|
46 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2015 |
JEC
1 - 1
GUA
80%
14%
6%
|
45 | 70 | 25 | +1 |
| 18 Feb. 2015 |
GUA
3 - 3
HER
28%
26%
46%
|
45 | 54 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2015 |
GUA
1 - 2
FFL
10%
20%
70%
|
45 | 74 | 29 | 0 |