Marcílio Dias vs Chapecoense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.9%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.1%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.5%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
12.9%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
56.9%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
0-1
13.5%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.6%
0-2
11.3%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.6%
0-3
6.3%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
8.8%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.4%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+39%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Marcílio Dias
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb. 2015 |
MAR
3 - 4
AVA
23%
24%
53%
|
53 | 63 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2015 |
INT
2 - 1
MAR
35%
24%
41%
|
54 | 50 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 Feb. 2015 |
MAR
1 - 0
HER
42%
26%
33%
|
53 | 55 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Feb. 2015 |
JEC
1 - 0
MAR
72%
18%
10%
|
53 | 71 | 18 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2015 |
MAR
4 - 3
FFL
16%
23%
61%
|
52 | 75 | 23 | +1 |
Matches
Chapecoense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb. 2015 |
MET
1 - 1
CHA
20%
24%
56%
|
76 | 53 | 23 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2015 |
CHA
0 - 1
FFL
48%
25%
27%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2015 |
AVA
0 - 1
CHA
30%
27%
44%
|
76 | 64 | 12 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2015 |
CHA
2 - 0
CRI
55%
24%
21%
|
75 | 69 | 6 | +1 |
| 03 Feb. 2015 |
GUA
1 - 3
CHA
11%
22%
67%
|
75 | 44 | 31 | 0 |