Champions League Semi-finals
Global 3-5
Manchester United vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.8%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.3%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.3%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.2%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.6%
21%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21%
25.2%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 1957 |
MUD
2 - 0
BUR
78%
14%
8%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1957 |
MUD
4 - 0
SUN
76%
14%
10%
|
89 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1957 |
BUR
1 - 3
MUD
31%
24%
45%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | +1 |
| 13 Apr. 1957 |
LUT
0 - 2
MUD
25%
23%
52%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1957 |
RMA
3 - 1
MUD
64%
18%
18%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr. 1957 |
RMA
4 - 1
CEL
85%
10%
6%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 1957 |
ZAR
1 - 2
RMA
22%
22%
56%
|
89 | 71 | 18 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1957 |
RMA
3 - 1
MUD
64%
18%
18%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1957 |
UDL
1 - 5
RMA
22%
23%
55%
|
89 | 74 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1957 |
RMA
2 - 0
VCF
79%
13%
9%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |