EFL Cup Semi-finals
Global 4-3
Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.1%
Win probability
2.48
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
2%
5-0
4.2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5%
4-0
8.5%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.2%
+4
10.5%
3-0
13.7%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.9%
2-0
16.6%
3-1
6%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.5%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
22.1%
13.1%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
5.9%
2-2
1.6%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
13.1%
4.8%
Win probability
0.44
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
1.3%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
3.9%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.7%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan. 2009 |
BOL
0 - 1
MUD
14%
25%
62%
|
97 | 84 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2009 |
MUD
1 - 0
WIG
79%
15%
6%
|
97 | 83 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2009 |
MUD
3 - 0
CHL
51%
25%
24%
|
96 | 96 | 0 | +1 |
| 07 Jan. 2009 |
DER
1 - 0
MUD
14%
24%
62%
|
97 | 68 | 29 | -1 |
| 04 Jan. 2009 |
SOU
0 - 3
MUD
12%
24%
65%
|
97 | 66 | 31 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan. 2009 |
DER
0 - 2
QPR
52%
25%
23%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2009 |
DER
1 - 0
MUD
14%
24%
62%
|
68 | 97 | 29 | +2 |
| 03 Jan. 2009 |
FOR
3 - 4
DER
27%
24%
50%
|
68 | 52 | 16 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 2008 |
DER
0 - 1
IPS
46%
26%
28%
|
69 | 72 | 3 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 2008 |
PNE
2 - 0
DER
50%
26%
24%
|
69 | 72 | 3 | 0 |