Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.3%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.4%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
13.1%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
18.4%
1-0
16.5%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
27.1%
25%
Draw
0-0
10.4%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
25%
15.8%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.1%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jan. 1990 |
NTT
0 - 1
MUD
62%
22%
16%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1990 |
MUD
0 - 0
QPR
54%
26%
20%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 1989 |
WIM
2 - 2
MUD
49%
25%
25%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1989 |
ASV
3 - 0
MUD
41%
27%
32%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 1989 |
LIV
0 - 0
MUD
69%
19%
12%
|
84 | 91 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 1990 |
DER
2 - 3
POR
82%
12%
6%
|
80 | 61 | 19 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1990 |
POR
1 - 1
DER
29%
25%
46%
|
80 | 61 | 19 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1990 |
MIL
1 - 1
DER
48%
27%
25%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 1989 |
DER
4 - 1
COV
50%
27%
23%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1989 |
DER
0 - 1
EVE
36%
28%
36%
|
80 | 86 | 6 | 0 |