Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.9%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.2%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.2%
1-0
9%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.1%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25.2%
33.9%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
8.1%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.9%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.7%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1937 |
MUD
2 - 1
SUN
36%
23%
41%
|
72 | 86 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1936 |
BOL
0 - 4
MUD
65%
18%
17%
|
71 | 78 | 7 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 1936 |
WOL
3 - 1
MUD
76%
13%
11%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1936 |
MUD
1 - 0
BOL
43%
23%
34%
|
71 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 1936 |
MUD
2 - 2
WBA
36%
22%
43%
|
71 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec. 1936 |
DER
3 - 1
EVE
59%
19%
23%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1936 |
DER
1 - 0
WBA
62%
18%
20%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1936 |
EVE
7 - 0
DER
66%
17%
17%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 1936 |
DER
0 - 2
MID
63%
18%
19%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 1936 |
BIR
0 - 1
DER
52%
22%
26%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |