Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.2%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
32.3%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
18.1%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.6%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 1929 |
ASV
1 - 0
MUD
73%
16%
12%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1929 |
MUD
1 - 0
ARS
41%
24%
35%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 1929 |
OPA
3 - 0
MUD
46%
23%
31%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1929 |
MUD
2 - 5
GRI
61%
20%
18%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | -1 |
| 07 Oct. 1929 |
SHE
3 - 1
MUD
64%
18%
18%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov. 1929 |
DER
4 - 3
BBU
64%
19%
17%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1929 |
MID
4 - 0
DER
53%
22%
25%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 1929 |
DER
2 - 2
LIV
63%
19%
17%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1929 |
ARS
1 - 1
DER
60%
20%
19%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 1929 |
DER
3 - 2
OPA
73%
16%
12%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |