Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.3%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.2%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.7%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
27.9%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.3%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 1928 |
SHW
2 - 1
MUD
59%
21%
20%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1928 |
MUD
1 - 1
BOL
49%
24%
27%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1928 |
HUR
1 - 2
MUD
66%
20%
15%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1928 |
MUD
1 - 0
BIR
50%
23%
27%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
| 13 Oct. 1928 |
MUD
1 - 1
CAR
50%
23%
27%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 1928 |
DER
5 - 2
LEI
61%
20%
19%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1928 |
ASV
2 - 3
DER
62%
20%
19%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1928 |
DER
4 - 0
BUR
59%
20%
22%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 1928 |
SHE
2 - 1
DER
62%
19%
19%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 1928 |
DER
1 - 1
MAC
62%
19%
19%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |