Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.3%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.1%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.7%
26%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 1927 |
MUD
2 - 2
CAR
40%
26%
34%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 1927 |
EVE
5 - 2
MUD
60%
21%
19%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 1927 |
LEI
1 - 0
MUD
66%
19%
16%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 24 Sep. 1927 |
MUD
3 - 0
TOT
49%
25%
27%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | +1 |
| 19 Sep. 1927 |
BBU
3 - 0
MUD
63%
20%
18%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 1927 |
SHE
1 - 0
DER
64%
19%
17%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 1927 |
DER
5 - 2
BCF
57%
22%
21%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 1927 |
BUR
4 - 2
DER
64%
19%
17%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 1927 |
DER
4 - 0
ARS
52%
22%
26%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 1927 |
LIV
5 - 2
DER
63%
20%
17%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | -1 |