Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.8%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.3%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.8%
1-0
13%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
16.6%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.5%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 1921 |
DER
1 - 1
MUD
44%
25%
31%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1921 |
MUD
0 - 1
BBU
51%
25%
25%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1921 |
BBU
2 - 0
MUD
64%
19%
18%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1921 |
MUD
0 - 1
MID
53%
24%
23%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | -1 |
| 09 Apr. 1921 |
MID
2 - 4
MUD
57%
22%
22%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 1921 |
DER
1 - 1
MUD
44%
25%
31%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1921 |
ASV
1 - 0
DER
74%
16%
10%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1921 |
DER
2 - 3
ASV
43%
25%
32%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1921 |
LIV
1 - 1
DER
73%
17%
11%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1921 |
DER
0 - 0
LIV
44%
28%
28%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |