Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.9%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.3%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.7%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.3%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.3%
13.8%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 1913 |
BBU
0 - 0
MUD
54%
22%
24%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1913 |
MUD
2 - 0
SHW
55%
23%
23%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1913 |
EVE
4 - 1
MUD
48%
24%
28%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 1913 |
MUD
1 - 1
WBA
67%
19%
14%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | -1 |
| 01 Jan. 1913 |
MUD
2 - 0
BRA
66%
20%
14%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 1913 |
DER
1 - 0
NOT
75%
15%
11%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1913 |
MID
4 - 1
DER
58%
21%
21%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 Jan. 1913 |
DER
5 - 0
TOT
72%
16%
12%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | +1 |
| 01 Jan. 1913 |
SHW
3 - 3
DER
69%
18%
12%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1912 |
BBU
0 - 1
DER
71%
18%
12%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |