Manchester United vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76%
Win probability
2.7
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.8%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.1%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.1%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.8%
14.5%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
6.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
14.5%
9.5%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 1906 |
MUD
1 - 2
BOL
56%
22%
22%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1906 |
SHE
0 - 2
MUD
58%
21%
22%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1906 |
MUD
0 - 0
NOT
78%
13%
9%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1906 |
DER
2 - 2
MUD
47%
23%
29%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1906 |
BRI
1 - 2
MUD
53%
23%
25%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 1906 |
DER
2 - 2
MAC
40%
23%
37%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1906 |
BOL
1 - 0
DER
78%
13%
9%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | -1 |
| 08 Sep. 1906 |
DER
2 - 1
BCF
57%
21%
23%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | +1 |
| 03 Sep. 1906 |
DER
2 - 2
MUD
47%
23%
29%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1906 |
SHE
2 - 0
DER
73%
16%
12%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | -1 |