Champions League Semi-finals
Global 5-1Manchester City vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76%
Win probability
2.71
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.9%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
5.5%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.1%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.7%
14.4%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
6.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.4%
9.5%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May. 2023 |
EVE
0 - 3
MAC
7%
16%
77%
|
99 | 85 | 14 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2023 |
RMA
1 - 1
MAC
21%
23%
57%
|
99 | 94 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2023 |
MAC
2 - 1
LEE
89%
8%
3%
|
98 | 83 | 15 | +1 |
| 03 May. 2023 |
MAC
3 - 0
WHU
84%
11%
5%
|
98 | 89 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
FUL
1 - 2
MAC
9%
18%
74%
|
98 | 85 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May. 2023 |
RMA
1 - 0
GET
81%
13%
5%
|
94 | 82 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2023 |
RMA
1 - 1
MAC
21%
23%
57%
|
94 | 99 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2023 |
RMA
2 - 1
OSA
85%
11%
4%
|
94 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2023 |
RSO
2 - 0
RMA
16%
22%
62%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2023 |
RMA
4 - 2
ALM
82%
13%
5%
|
94 | 79 | 15 | 0 |