FA Cup 1/32
Global 7-4
Manchester City vs Notts County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.3%
Win probability
2.81
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.1%
6-0
2.1%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.7%
5-0
4.5%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.1%
4-0
7.9%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
<0%
+4
11.5%
3-0
11.3%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.8%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.8%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.8%
12.3%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
5.8%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
12.3%
6.3%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
2%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.8%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.3%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 1995 |
MAC
1 - 0
ASV
51%
25%
24%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1995 |
NEW
3 - 1
MAC
67%
20%
13%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1995 |
MAC
0 - 0
COV
61%
23%
17%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 1995 |
CRY
4 - 0
MAC
48%
25%
28%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 Jan. 1995 |
NOT
2 - 2
MAC
23%
24%
53%
|
81 | 61 | 20 | 0 |
Matches
Notts County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 1995 |
NOT
3 - 0
BUR
53%
24%
23%
|
62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 1995 |
NOT
2 - 2
MAC
23%
24%
53%
|
61 | 81 | 20 | +1 |
| 31 Dec. 1994 |
NOT
0 - 1
LUT
52%
25%
24%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Dec. 1994 |
MID
2 - 1
NOT
68%
20%
12%
|
62 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1994 |
NOT
0 - 1
MIL
51%
26%
24%
|
63 | 69 | 6 | -1 |