Manchester City vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.5%
Win probability
2.37
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.7%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.2%
3-0
6%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.4%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.8%
18.7%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 1928 |
WHU
3 - 0
MAC
56%
20%
24%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1928 |
MAC
2 - 3
LEI
62%
19%
19%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1928 |
LEE
4 - 1
MAC
50%
22%
28%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
| 13 Oct. 1928 |
DER
1 - 1
MAC
62%
19%
19%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1928 |
MAC
5 - 3
SUN
58%
19%
22%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 1928 |
NEW
4 - 1
HUR
54%
21%
24%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1928 |
SUN
5 - 2
NEW
65%
19%
16%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | -1 |
| 20 Oct. 1928 |
NEW
0 - 3
ARS
61%
19%
20%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 1928 |
LIV
2 - 1
NEW
61%
20%
18%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1928 |
NEW
3 - 2
LEE
64%
19%
18%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |