Europa League Eliminatorias 1/16
Global 6-1
Manchester City vs Porto analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.1%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.8%
15.2%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Feb. 2012 |
FCP
1 - 2
MAC
35%
25%
40%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2012 |
ASV
0 - 1
MAC
21%
25%
54%
|
92 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2012 |
MAC
3 - 0
FUL
76%
16%
8%
|
92 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2012 |
EVE
1 - 0
MAC
26%
25%
48%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2012 |
LIV
2 - 2
MAC
39%
26%
35%
|
92 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Porto
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb. 2012 |
VST
1 - 3
FCP
15%
22%
63%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2012 |
FCP
1 - 2
MAC
35%
25%
40%
|
88 | 92 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2012 |
FCP
4 - 0
UDL
82%
13%
6%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2012 |
FCP
2 - 0
VST
80%
14%
6%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2012 |
GFC
3 - 1
FCP
16%
22%
61%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |