Manchester City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.3%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.1%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.1%
14.6%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.1%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 1979 |
IPS
4 - 0
MAC
55%
24%
21%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 1979 |
MAC
2 - 3
WOL
63%
21%
16%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 1979 |
BRI
1 - 0
MAC
40%
28%
32%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | -1 |
| 17 Nov. 1979 |
BOL
0 - 1
MAC
39%
27%
34%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1979 |
MAC
2 - 0
MUD
48%
25%
27%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 1979 |
DER
0 - 0
NOR
51%
24%
25%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 1979 |
BHA
2 - 0
DER
49%
25%
27%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | -1 |
| 24 Nov. 1979 |
DER
4 - 1
NTT
31%
28%
41%
|
81 | 90 | 9 | +1 |
| 17 Nov. 1979 |
DER
0 - 1
IPS
45%
26%
29%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1979 |
BRI
0 - 2
DER
55%
24%
21%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |