Manchester City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.9%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.9%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.2%
22.9%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.9%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.8%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 1972 |
ARS
0 - 0
MAC
54%
25%
20%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 1972 |
MAC
4 - 3
WHU
62%
22%
16%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1972 |
COV
3 - 2
MAC
36%
28%
37%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 1972 |
MAC
1 - 1
WOL
46%
25%
29%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 1972 |
MAC
2 - 1
WBA
63%
21%
16%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 1972 |
DER
2 - 1
SHE
68%
20%
13%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 1972 |
DER
3 - 0
SLB
56%
22%
22%
|
87 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 1972 |
IPS
3 - 1
DER
34%
30%
36%
|
87 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1972 |
DER
2 - 1
LEI
69%
19%
13%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 1972 |
LEE
5 - 0
DER
68%
20%
12%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | -1 |