Manchester City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.8%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.2%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.5%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
30%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.7%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.6%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1952 |
MAC
0 - 1
OPA
42%
24%
35%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1951 |
ASV
1 - 2
MAC
64%
19%
17%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 1951 |
MAC
3 - 1
CHL
58%
21%
21%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1951 |
CHL
0 - 3
MAC
58%
21%
21%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | +1 |
| 22 Dec. 1951 |
MAC
3 - 1
SUN
42%
24%
35%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec. 1951 |
STO
3 - 1
DER
43%
24%
33%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1951 |
DER
2 - 1
HUR
76%
14%
11%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1951 |
HUR
1 - 1
DER
41%
24%
35%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 1951 |
DER
1 - 1
ASV
66%
17%
17%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 1951 |
SUN
3 - 0
DER
50%
23%
28%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | -1 |