Manchester City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.6%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.4%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.8%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.4%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.7%
21.6%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 1933 |
BPO
1 - 0
MAC
46%
22%
32%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1933 |
MAC
3 - 0
EVE
59%
20%
21%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1933 |
ARS
2 - 1
MAC
73%
15%
12%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1933 |
MID
2 - 0
MAC
45%
22%
33%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1932 |
MAC
2 - 4
SUN
63%
19%
18%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 1933 |
DER
3 - 0
SUN
64%
18%
18%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1933 |
BIR
3 - 1
DER
47%
23%
29%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | -1 |
| 21 Jan. 1933 |
DER
2 - 2
WBA
65%
18%
17%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1933 |
SHW
0 - 0
DER
67%
17%
16%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1932 |
DER
5 - 1
LEE
68%
18%
15%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | +1 |