Manchester City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.5%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.4%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.9%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.8%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
20.6%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 1931 |
LEI
4 - 0
MAC
61%
19%
20%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 1931 |
DER
2 - 1
MAC
62%
19%
19%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1931 |
MAC
1 - 1
SUN
64%
19%
17%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1931 |
BPO
2 - 2
MAC
41%
23%
36%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | -1 |
| 25 Apr. 1931 |
ASV
4 - 2
MAC
74%
15%
12%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 1931 |
DER
1 - 3
SHE
65%
18%
18%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 1931 |
DER
2 - 1
MAC
62%
19%
19%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | +1 |
| 29 Aug. 1931 |
BPO
2 - 1
DER
41%
23%
36%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | -1 |
| 02 May. 1931 |
LEE
3 - 1
DER
44%
23%
33%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1931 |
HUR
3 - 0
DER
49%
24%
28%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |