Manchester City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.2%
Win probability
2.01
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.1%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
20.9%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.9%
16.9%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 1913 |
SHE
1 - 3
MAC
60%
22%
18%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1913 |
MAC
1 - 1
MID
63%
20%
17%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1913 |
ASV
1 - 1
MAC
79%
13%
8%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1913 |
MAC
1 - 1
DER
61%
21%
18%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1913 |
BBU
2 - 2
MAC
68%
19%
13%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 1913 |
TOT
1 - 1
DER
54%
24%
22%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1913 |
DER
2 - 2
MID
63%
20%
17%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1913 |
DER
3 - 5
SHE
62%
21%
17%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
| 01 Sep. 1913 |
DER
1 - 1
LIV
59%
22%
20%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1913 |
MAC
1 - 1
DER
61%
21%
18%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |