Manchester City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.2%
Win probability
3.12
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.6%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.5%
6-0
2.5%
7-1
0.9%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.6%
5-0
4.8%
6-1
2%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
7.2%
4-0
7.6%
5-1
3.9%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
12.5%
3-0
9.8%
4-1
6.3%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
18%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
6%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.9%
11.2%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
5%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
11.2%
6.6%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
1.6%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
4.7%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.4%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 1907 |
BCF
3 - 1
MAC
43%
23%
35%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 1907 |
MAC
0 - 1
SHW
62%
20%
18%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 1907 |
MAC
3 - 1
MID
84%
10%
6%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1906 |
ARS
4 - 1
MAC
52%
23%
25%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1906 |
MAC
3 - 1
EVE
54%
22%
24%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 1907 |
DER
0 - 1
BOL
43%
23%
34%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 1907 |
BCF
1 - 0
DER
65%
19%
16%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1907 |
NEW
2 - 0
DER
80%
13%
7%
|
76 | 86 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1906 |
DER
3 - 0
SHE
42%
23%
35%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | +1 |
| 25 Dec. 1906 |
SHW
1 - 1
DER
82%
11%
7%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |