Manchester City vs Aston Villa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.2%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.1%
3-0
9.1%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.8%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.1%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.1%
11.6%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 1976 |
LEI
1 - 0
MAC
42%
27%
31%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1976 |
MAC
4 - 0
MID
63%
22%
16%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | +1 |
| 17 Jan. 1976 |
MAC
3 - 0
WHU
58%
23%
19%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 1976 |
MID
1 - 0
MAC
47%
28%
26%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 1976 |
MID
1 - 0
MAC
41%
28%
31%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 1976 |
ASV
0 - 2
QPR
43%
26%
31%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 1976 |
ASV
1 - 1
NEW
43%
26%
31%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 1976 |
ARS
0 - 0
ASV
58%
23%
18%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1975 |
DER
2 - 0
ASV
76%
15%
9%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1975 |
ASV
4 - 1
WHU
40%
27%
33%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | +1 |