Manchester City vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
21.1%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3.2%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.3%
1-0
7%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.9%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
54.6%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
0-1
12.4%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.9%
0-2
10.3%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.8%
0-3
5.7%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
8.3%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.2%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2004 |
NEW
4 - 3
MAC
63%
21%
16%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2004 |
MAC
1 - 0
CHL
26%
26%
48%
|
83 | 92 | 9 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2004 |
SOU
0 - 0
MAC
43%
26%
32%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2004 |
MAC
0 - 1
ARS
16%
22%
62%
|
83 | 95 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2004 |
MAC
7 - 1
BAR
82%
12%
5%
|
83 | 57 | 26 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2004 |
MUD
2 - 0
ARS
39%
25%
37%
|
95 | 92 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2004 |
PAN
2 - 2
ARS
18%
24%
58%
|
95 | 81 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2004 |
ARS
3 - 1
ASV
79%
14%
7%
|
95 | 85 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2004 |
ARS
4 - 0
CHA
83%
12%
5%
|
95 | 81 | 14 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2004 |
RBK
1 - 1
ARS
22%
24%
54%
|
95 | 83 | 12 | 0 |