Manchester City vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.3%
Win probability
2.66
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.7%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.1%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.5%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.4%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
8%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
9%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.9%
16.1%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16.1%
13.6%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8.7%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan. 1909 |
MAC
4 - 0
EVE
48%
23%
29%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 1909 |
MUD
3 - 1
MAC
67%
18%
15%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 1909 |
MAC
4 - 3
BRA
78%
13%
9%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 1909 |
BBU
3 - 2
MAC
49%
22%
29%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1908 |
NTT
0 - 2
MAC
53%
21%
26%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan. 1909 |
PNE
0 - 0
ARS
58%
21%
21%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 1909 |
ARS
1 - 1
BRI
52%
22%
26%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 1909 |
NEW
3 - 1
ARS
72%
16%
11%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 1909 |
ARS
1 - 0
NOT
64%
20%
16%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1908 |
SHW
6 - 2
ARS
68%
18%
14%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |