Mali vs Nigeria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
26.9%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.1%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
2.1%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
7%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.2%
27.3%
Draw
0-0
9.5%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.3%
45.8%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
13%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24%
0-2
8.9%
1-3
4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
13.7%
0-3
4.1%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.7%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mali
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 2013 |
KOR
3 - 1
MLI
70%
20%
10%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2013 |
ALG
1 - 0
MLI
50%
25%
25%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
| 16 Jun. 2013 |
MLI
2 - 2
BEN
71%
19%
10%
|
77 | 59 | 18 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2013 |
MLI
1 - 1
RWA
76%
17%
7%
|
77 | 55 | 22 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2013 |
RWA
1 - 2
MLI
17%
23%
60%
|
77 | 55 | 22 | 0 |
Matches
Nigeria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jan. 2014 |
NGA
2 - 1
ETH
80%
14%
6%
|
86 | 59 | 27 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 2013 |
ITA
2 - 2
NGA
71%
20%
10%
|
86 | 93 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2013 |
NGA
2 - 0
ETH
80%
14%
6%
|
86 | 60 | 26 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2013 |
JOR
1 - 0
NGA
26%
28%
47%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2013 |
ETH
1 - 2
NGA
20%
28%
53%
|
86 | 61 | 25 | 0 |