Mali vs Nigeria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.6%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.7%
2-0
3.8%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.1%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
5.9%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.3%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.6%
50.8%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
0-1
12.5%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
9.7%
1-3
4.8%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.5%
0-3
5%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.2%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.6%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mali
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb. 2013 |
RSA
1 - 1
MLI
49%
26%
25%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2013 |
COD
1 - 1
MLI
35%
25%
40%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2013 |
GHA
1 - 0
MLI
57%
23%
20%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2013 |
MLI
1 - 0
NIG
72%
18%
10%
|
77 | 60 | 17 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2012 |
BOT
1 - 4
MLI
25%
27%
47%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Nigeria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2013 |
CIV
1 - 2
NGA
55%
23%
21%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2013 |
ETH
0 - 2
NGA
13%
22%
65%
|
86 | 62 | 24 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2013 |
ZAM
1 - 1
NGA
20%
26%
55%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2013 |
NGA
1 - 1
BFA
78%
15%
7%
|
86 | 66 | 20 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 2013 |
CPV
0 - 0
NGA
25%
29%
46%
|
86 | 67 | 19 | 0 |