Mali vs Nigeria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.1%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.1%
+2
4%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
4.2%
3-2
0.7%
4-3
0.1%
+1
13%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
11.3%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
26.6%
55.3%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
16.6%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
26.9%
0-2
12.2%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
17%
0-3
6%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.2%
-3
7.7%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mali
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 2002 |
MLI
0 - 3
CMR
17%
24%
59%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2002 |
MLI
2 - 0
RSA
19%
24%
57%
|
70 | 82 | 12 | +2 |
| 28 Jan. 2002 |
MLI
2 - 0
ALG
24%
28%
48%
|
69 | 81 | 12 | +1 |
| 24 Jan. 2002 |
MLI
0 - 0
NGA
15%
26%
60%
|
69 | 86 | 17 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2002 |
MLI
1 - 1
LBR
70%
18%
12%
|
69 | 55 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Nigeria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 2002 |
NGA
1 - 2
SEN
66%
20%
14%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2002 |
NGA
1 - 0
GHA
65%
20%
15%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | +1 |
| 28 Jan. 2002 |
LBR
0 - 1
NGA
6%
21%
74%
|
85 | 56 | 29 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2002 |
MLI
0 - 0
NGA
15%
26%
60%
|
86 | 69 | 17 | -1 |
| 21 Jan. 2002 |
ALG
0 - 1
NGA
33%
28%
40%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | +1 |