Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.2%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.3%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22%
25%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25%
30.9%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.8%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.7%
0-3
2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
+13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
2
9º
14º
13º
6
1º
11º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
9 | 85 |
1º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 74 |
2º
|
33.5% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 73 |
3º
|
29.5% | |
|
2º
|
7 | 72 |
4º
|
31% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 58 |
5º
|
35% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 52 |
6º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 51 |
7º
|
18% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 43 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
3 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
|
4º
|
6 | 40 |
10º
|
13.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 40 |
11º
|
13% | |
|
8º
|
5 | 39 |
12º
|
13% | |
|
|
14º
|
2 | 38 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
15º
|
2 | 36 |
14º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 31 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
17º
|
0 | 28 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 27 |
17º
|
16.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 25 |
18º
|
27.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
1% | 2.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
2.5% | 4% |
|
Mid-table
|
81% | 83% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
7% | 6.5% |
|
Relegation
|
8.5% | 4% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mainz 05
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
M05
1 - 2
BRE
42%
25%
33%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2024 |
M05
0 - 1
DAR
61%
21%
18%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
STU
3 - 3
M05
61%
21%
18%
|
88 | 92 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
M05
1 - 1
FCU
43%
26%
31%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
WEH
1 - 3
M05
19%
22%
59%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
Heidenheim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
BVB
4 - 2
HEI
79%
14%
7%
|
86 | 97 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
HEI
4 - 0
AUG
54%
22%
25%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2024 |
HEI
3 - 2
HÄC
58%
20%
22%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
STP
0 - 2
HEI
37%
25%
38%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2024 |
HÄC
1 - 2
HEI
45%
22%
33%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |