Madagascar vs Ethiopia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.5%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.1%
2-0
3.6%
3-1
2.3%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.1%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
51.7%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.4%
0-2
8.7%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15.8%
0-3
5%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
7.9%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.1%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Madagascar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2010 |
NGA
2 - 0
MAD
93%
6%
1%
|
51 | 87 | 36 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2010 |
MAD
1 - 0
COM
77%
16%
7%
|
51 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2010 |
MAD
0 - 0
MAY
78%
15%
7%
|
51 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 2009 |
RSA
1 - 0
MAD
80%
15%
5%
|
52 | 83 | 31 | -1 |
| 11 Oct. 2008 |
CIV
3 - 0
MAD
93%
5%
1%
|
52 | 87 | 35 | 0 |
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2010 |
ETH
1 - 4
GUI
27%
26%
47%
|
62 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2010 |
ETH
1 - 0
CHA
71%
19%
10%
|
62 | 45 | 17 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2010 |
ETH
0 - 3
KEN
49%
26%
25%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | -2 |
| 04 Dec. 2009 |
KEN
2 - 0
ETH
41%
26%
33%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | -3 |
| 02 Dec. 2009 |
ZAM
1 - 0
ETH
54%
25%
21%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | 0 |