Lusitania FC vs Guarda Desportiva analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.5%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.4%
2-0
5%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
12.7%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.5%
22%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
9%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
22%
35.5%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
4%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
17.7%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
10.5%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
4.8%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
49
1º
13º
1º
10
2º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
49 | 52 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
2º
|
49 | 52 |
2º
|
16.5% | |
|
3º
|
48 | 51 |
3º
|
59% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 48 |
4º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
43 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 42 |
6º
|
93% | |
|
7º
|
38 | 38 |
7º
|
93% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 33 |
8º
|
71.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 32 |
9º
|
71.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 29 |
10º
|
67% | |
|
10º
|
29 | 29 |
11º
|
67% | |
|
12º
|
20 | 20 |
12º
|
84% | |
|
13º
|
17 | 17 |
13º
|
84% | |
|
|
14º
|
10 | 11 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lusitania FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
LUS
3 - 3
RES
80%
13%
7%
|
34 | 19 | 15 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
GON
0 - 0
LUS
64%
21%
15%
|
34 | 39 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
LUS
0 - 1
SAL
27%
25%
48%
|
35 | 42 | 7 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
REB
2 - 1
LUS
14%
20%
66%
|
36 | 18 | 18 | -1 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
OLI
1 - 0
LUS
45%
27%
28%
|
36 | 38 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Guarda Desportiva
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
GUA
1 - 1
GON
42%
26%
32%
|
35 | 39 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
SAL
2 - 0
GUA
61%
22%
17%
|
36 | 43 | 7 | -1 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
SMA
3 - 3
GUA
48%
23%
29%
|
35 | 39 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
GUA
3 - 1
REB
84%
11%
6%
|
35 | 20 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
ALP
0 - 0
GUA
8%
14%
78%
|
36 | 15 | 21 | -1 |