Lusitania FC vs Alpendorada analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.1%
Win probability
2.84
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.5%
5-0
3.8%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.6%
4-0
6.7%
5-1
3.3%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.7%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.8%
2-0
10%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.9%
13.4%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
13.4%
8.5%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+31%
-23%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
49
1º
13º
1º
29
7º
13º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
49 | 52 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
2º
|
49 | 52 |
2º
|
16.5% | |
|
3º
|
48 | 51 |
3º
|
59% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 48 |
4º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
43 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 42 |
6º
|
93% | |
|
7º
|
38 | 38 |
7º
|
93% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 33 |
8º
|
71.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 32 |
9º
|
71.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 29 |
10º
|
67% | |
|
|
10º
|
29 | 29 |
11º
|
67% | |
|
12º
|
20 | 20 |
12º
|
84% | |
|
13º
|
17 | 17 |
13º
|
84% | |
|
14º
|
10 | 11 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 33% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 67% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lusitania FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Dec. 2022 |
VAL
2 - 0
LUS
54%
26%
20%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2022 |
LUS
2 - 1
CAM
54%
24%
22%
|
38 | 36 | 2 | +1 |
| 04 Dec. 2022 |
MAC
1 - 0
LUS
11%
19%
70%
|
39 | 17 | 22 | -1 |
| 27 Nov. 2022 |
LUS
1 - 0
LEC
33%
26%
42%
|
38 | 44 | 6 | +1 |
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
CAS
0 - 2
LUS
46%
26%
29%
|
36 | 36 | 0 | +2 |
Matches
Alpendorada
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Dec. 2022 |
ALP
0 - 1
GON
15%
24%
61%
|
24 | 45 | 21 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2022 |
SAL
5 - 4
ALP
80%
15%
5%
|
24 | 46 | 22 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2022 |
ALP
0 - 3
REB
31%
23%
47%
|
25 | 35 | 10 | -1 |
| 27 Nov. 2022 |
RES
0 - 3
ALP
50%
22%
28%
|
24 | 25 | 1 | +1 |
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
VAL
2 - 0
ALP
80%
13%
7%
|
24 | 44 | 20 | 0 |