FC Lugano vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.1%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.6%
2-0
6%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.3%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.4%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
35.1%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
8%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.6%
0-2
5%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.3%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+7%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
39
1º
4º
2º
40
1º
10º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
40 | 55 |
1º
|
37% | |
|
|
2º
|
39 | 54 |
2º
|
27.5% | |
|
3º
|
36 | 51 |
3º
|
15.5% | |
|
8º
|
32 | 50 |
4º
|
14% | |
|
4º
|
36 | 50 |
5º
|
13.5% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 49 |
6º
|
14.5% | |
|
6º
|
34 | 49 |
7º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
33 | 48 |
8º
|
15.5% | |
|
9º
|
27 | 41 |
9º
|
53.5% | |
|
10º
|
22 | 34 |
10º
|
56% | |
|
11º
|
21 | 30 |
11º
|
60.5% | |
|
12º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
79.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
93.5% | 96% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
6.5% | 4% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan. 2025 |
WIL
2 - 2
LUG
15%
21%
63%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2025 |
LUG
3 - 3
KOL
33%
24%
44%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2025 |
STR
2 - 1
LUG
36%
24%
40%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 2
PAF
56%
23%
21%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
LUG
1 - 4
LAU
50%
24%
26%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
BAS
3 - 0
SCH
74%
17%
10%
|
85 | 66 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
BAS
2 - 0
THU
53%
23%
24%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
BAS
0 - 1
GCZ
56%
24%
20%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
STG
1 - 1
BAS
43%
23%
34%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 2
SIO
49%
24%
27%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |