Serie C Playoffs Ascenso Quarter-finals
Global 2-4
Lucchese Libertas vs Parma analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
17.5%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
4%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
4.4%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
12.3%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
24.4%
58.2%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
0-1
14.6%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.1%
0-2
12%
1-3
5.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
18%
0-3
6.6%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
9%
0-4
2.7%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.5%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-22%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May. 2017 |
PAR
2 - 1
ASL
73%
19%
8%
|
50 | 66 | 16 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2017 |
ABN
0 - 0
ASL
45%
27%
28%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2017 |
ASL
1 - 0
ABN
48%
27%
26%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2017 |
ARZ
1 - 2
ASL
52%
26%
22%
|
49 | 53 | 4 | +1 |
| 06 May. 2017 |
GER
1 - 0
ASL
56%
25%
19%
|
50 | 55 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Parma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May. 2017 |
PAR
2 - 1
ASL
73%
19%
8%
|
66 | 50 | 16 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2017 |
PAR
2 - 0
PIA
67%
21%
13%
|
65 | 53 | 12 | +1 |
| 21 May. 2017 |
PIA
0 - 0
PAR
22%
25%
53%
|
65 | 53 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2017 |
PAR
1 - 0
REG
70%
20%
10%
|
65 | 52 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2017 |
TER
0 - 0
PAR
16%
23%
61%
|
66 | 49 | 17 | -1 |