Lucchese Libertas vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.9%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.6%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
5%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.6%
1-0
14.7%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.1%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
9.2%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
24.9%
18.2%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep. 1999 |
ACL
1 - 1
ASL
30%
27%
44%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1999 |
ASL
2 - 1
FIA
47%
27%
26%
|
62 | 63 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 Sep. 1999 |
ASL
2 - 1
MON
73%
18%
9%
|
62 | 37 | 25 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1999 |
SIE
2 - 0
ASL
59%
23%
19%
|
63 | 67 | 4 | -1 |
| 01 Sep. 1999 |
LEC
3 - 1
ASL
69%
19%
12%
|
63 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep. 1999 |
VAR
1 - 2
SIE
33%
27%
40%
|
57 | 67 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 1999 |
MOD
1 - 1
VAR
57%
25%
18%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1999 |
VAR
1 - 1
BRE
57%
23%
19%
|
57 | 50 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 1995 |
VAR
0 - 1
USC
20%
25%
55%
|
57 | 80 | 23 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1985 |
RIM
2 - 1
VAR
55%
23%
22%
|
58 | 55 | 3 | -1 |