Lucena vs Arroyo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.5%
Win probability
1.89
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.1%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.6%
1-0
13%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.6%
15%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lucena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2012 |
LUC
4 - 1
SDL
57%
22%
21%
|
54 | 47 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2012 |
CAR
2 - 0
LUC
71%
19%
10%
|
55 | 64 | 9 | -1 |
| 01 Sep. 2012 |
LUC
0 - 2
SEV
47%
26%
27%
|
56 | 55 | 1 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2012 |
SRQ
1 - 0
LUC
37%
29%
34%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | -1 |
| 09 Jun. 2012 |
PON
3 - 0
LUC
60%
22%
18%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Arroyo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2012 |
CAD
1 - 2
ARR
77%
15%
9%
|
42 | 63 | 21 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2012 |
ARR
1 - 0
ECI
31%
26%
44%
|
41 | 53 | 12 | +1 |
| 01 Sep. 2012 |
ALB
1 - 1
ARR
72%
18%
10%
|
40 | 61 | 21 | +1 |
| 29 Aug. 2012 |
ARR
2 - 1
ROD
44%
24%
32%
|
38 | 45 | 7 | +2 |
| 26 Aug. 2012 |
ARR
1 - 1
CPC
29%
27%
44%
|
38 | 55 | 17 | 0 |