VfB Lübeck vs St. Pauli II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.6%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
25.7%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.4%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+18%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
28
1º
11º
9º
25
9º
18º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 74 |
1º
|
88.5% | |
|
2º
|
40 | 61 |
2º
|
34.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 60 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
6º
|
32 | 58 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
3º
|
36 | 57 |
5º
|
16.5% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 56 |
6º
|
16.5% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 53 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
14% | |
|
|
10º
|
28 | 49 |
9º
|
15% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 48 |
10º
|
10.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 41 |
11º
|
13.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
25 | 40 |
12º
|
14% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 39 |
13º
|
18% | |
|
17º
|
18 | 37 |
14º
|
15% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 37 |
15º
|
13.5% | |
|
15º
|
21 | 33 |
16º
|
17.5% | |
|
18º
|
17 | 32 |
17º
|
16.5% | |
|
16º
|
19 | 30 |
18º
|
42% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
98% | 93.5% |
|
Relegation
|
1.5% | 6.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
VfB Lübeck
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
TOD
0 - 0
LUB
28%
24%
48%
|
57 | 50 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
WER
1 - 1
LUB
62%
20%
19%
|
57 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2024 |
STP
1 - 3
LUB
33%
24%
43%
|
56 | 51 | 5 | +1 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
LUB
1 - 1
VFB
55%
23%
22%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | -1 |
| 18 Oct. 2024 |
BWL
1 - 3
LUB
40%
24%
36%
|
56 | 54 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
St. Pauli II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
EIN
0 - 3
STP
33%
25%
43%
|
53 | 49 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2024 |
OTT
1 - 4
STP
54%
22%
25%
|
51 | 52 | 1 | +2 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
STP
2 - 2
JED
44%
24%
32%
|
51 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
STP
1 - 1
BRE
38%
24%
39%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2024 |
STP
1 - 3
LUB
33%
24%
43%
|
51 | 56 | 5 | -1 |