Loures vs Benfica Castelo Branco analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34.2%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.6%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
3.2%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.6%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
39.4%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21.3%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.6%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-36%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
11º
14º
11º
40
1º
7º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
18% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
82% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Loures
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
LOU
1 - 2
MAR
44%
26%
31%
|
34 | 35 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
1DE
3 - 0
LOU
47%
26%
27%
|
35 | 37 | 2 | -1 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
LOU
1 - 2
MOR
42%
24%
34%
|
36 | 35 | 1 | -1 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
LOU
0 - 0
UDA
45%
23%
32%
|
35 | 34 | 1 | +1 |
| 18 Dec. 2022 |
SER
2 - 1
LOU
53%
27%
20%
|
36 | 42 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
BEN
0 - 1
PER
52%
26%
23%
|
39 | 37 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
COR
2 - 0
BEN
37%
28%
36%
|
41 | 35 | 6 | -2 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
BEN
1 - 1
SIN
38%
28%
35%
|
41 | 44 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
USA
1 - 1
BEN
47%
26%
27%
|
41 | 39 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
BEN
2 - 0
SAB
74%
16%
10%
|
40 | 25 | 15 | +1 |