Lorient vs Red Star analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.9%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.4%
2-0
10.9%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.9%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.2%
18.7%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
9
1º
7º
1º
6
7º
17º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
4º
|
9 | 64 |
1º
|
35.5% | |
|
10º
|
8 | 61 |
2º
|
22.5% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 58 |
3º
|
13.5% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 53 |
4º
|
6% | |
|
1º
|
11 | 52 |
5º
|
6% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 50 |
6º
|
13.5% | |
|
9º
|
8 | 49 |
7º
|
6% | |
|
|
12º
|
6 | 49 |
8º
|
7% | |
|
8º
|
8 | 48 |
9º
|
9.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 44 |
10º
|
8.5% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 44 |
11º
|
7% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 43 |
12º
|
8.5% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 42 |
13º
|
10.5% | |
|
7º
|
9 | 40 |
14º
|
10% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 39 |
15º
|
11% | |
|
11º
|
7 | 36 |
16º
|
13% | |
|
17º
|
3 | 35 |
17º
|
17.5% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 35 |
18º
|
18.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
55.5% | 5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
30.5% | 20.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
13.5% | 67.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0.5% | 3.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 3.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lorient
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
AMI
1 - 0
LOR
21%
25%
54%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
LOR
2 - 0
GRE
65%
22%
13%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2024 |
FCM
0 - 1
LOR
26%
26%
49%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | +1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
GUI
1 - 1
LOR
33%
25%
43%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2024 |
NAN
1 - 1
LOR
42%
25%
34%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Red Star
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug. 2024 |
GUI
3 - 4
RED
50%
26%
25%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2024 |
RED
1 - 0
AJA
55%
25%
21%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
AMI
3 - 0
RED
36%
28%
36%
|
70 | 68 | 2 | -1 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
LHA
1 - 2
RED
50%
26%
25%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | +1 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
AUX
2 - 0
RED
62%
22%
17%
|
69 | 80 | 11 | 0 |