Lorient vs Metz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.1%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.1%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.3%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
22.7%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
43
1º
10º
1º
38
1º
10º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
43 | 67 |
1º
|
67.5% | |
|
2º
|
43 | 64 |
2º
|
30% | |
|
|
3º
|
38 | 62 |
3º
|
26.5% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 56 |
4º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
36 | 54 |
5º
|
19% | |
|
5º
|
36 | 54 |
6º
|
18.5% | |
|
7º
|
34 | 52 |
7º
|
18% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 48 |
8º
|
16.5% | |
|
10º
|
29 | 47 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
11º
|
29 | 44 |
10º
|
7.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 43 |
11º
|
9% | |
|
12º
|
27 | 42 |
12º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
24 | 42 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
15º
|
23 | 38 |
14º
|
18.5% | |
|
16º
|
23 | 38 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
14º
|
24 | 36 |
16º
|
28% | |
|
18º
|
15 | 30 |
17º
|
33.5% | |
|
17º
|
18 | 30 |
18º
|
52.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
85.5% | 40.5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
13.5% | 52% |
|
Mid-table
|
1% | 7.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Lorient
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
STL
2 - 0
LOR
29%
26%
45%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
TOU
0 - 3
LOR
6%
13%
82%
|
82 | 46 | 36 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
LOR
2 - 0
PFC
54%
24%
22%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2024 |
LOR
2 - 0
TRO
65%
21%
14%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | +1 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
USM
0 - 5
LOR
4%
12%
85%
|
81 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
Matches
Metz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
MET
0 - 0
PAU
58%
24%
19%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2024 |
TRO
3 - 0
MET
31%
26%
44%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | -1 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
ANN
0 - 0
MET
34%
27%
39%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2024 |
MET
2 - 0
DUN
56%
24%
20%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | +1 |
| 29 Nov. 2024 |
RAO
0 - 1
MET
5%
14%
81%
|
80 | 37 | 43 | 0 |