Livorno vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.6%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.7%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.4%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.6%
24%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
34.5%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.5%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Livorno
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1965 |
USA
1 - 0
LIV
48%
27%
25%
|
59 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1965 |
LIV
0 - 0
FCC
43%
29%
29%
|
59 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1965 |
MAN
2 - 0
LIV
59%
24%
17%
|
60 | 72 | 12 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 1965 |
REG
1 - 0
LIV
49%
26%
25%
|
60 | 59 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 1965 |
LIV
0 - 1
VNZ
53%
27%
20%
|
61 | 61 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 1965 |
VAR
0 - 2
VIC
38%
25%
37%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1965 |
SPA
2 - 0
VAR
52%
25%
23%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1965 |
TOR
2 - 0
VAR
73%
16%
11%
|
71 | 83 | 12 | -1 |
| 03 Oct. 1965 |
VAR
1 - 3
CAG
45%
24%
31%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 1965 |
VAR
0 - 0
JUV
29%
25%
46%
|
71 | 86 | 15 | 0 |