Liverpool vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.1%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.2%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.8%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.3%
22.6%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Liverpool
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 1953 |
CAR
4 - 0
LIV
47%
24%
29%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1953 |
ARS
5 - 3
LIV
78%
13%
9%
|
78 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1953 |
LIV
2 - 1
CAR
60%
22%
18%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1953 |
LIV
1 - 2
CHA
43%
24%
33%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 1953 |
CHL
3 - 0
LIV
48%
24%
28%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 1953 |
DER
1 - 1
BPO
42%
24%
34%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1953 |
DER
3 - 3
MID
60%
19%
21%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1953 |
BPO
2 - 1
DER
64%
19%
17%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1953 |
WBA
2 - 2
DER
60%
21%
19%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1953 |
DER
0 - 2
NEW
50%
22%
28%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | -1 |